A brewing leadership crisis in Karnataka took a new turn on Saturday morning when Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar sat down together for breakfast at the CM’s residence in Bengaluru. The joint meeting, arranged after a push from the central leadership of Indian National Congress (INC), was meant to cool tensions that have been rising over a possible mid-term change of guard. In a short press conference afterward, both leaders insisted there was no rift between them. Siddaramaiah said: “There are no differences between DK Shivakumar and me… We go together.”

Despite that show of unity, the political calculations and stakes remain complicated. The real issue is what happens next — especially who leads Karnataka for the rest of the term.

A power-sharing deal never fully confirmed — but widely believed

When Congress won the state in 2023, the two leaders represented two different strengths. Siddaramaiah brought social coalition strength through the AHINDA alliance (backward classes, minorities, Dalits), while Shivakumar offered organisational strength and influence among the Vokkaliga community and in old Mysuru regions. Officially, Siddaramaiah became CM and Shivakumar became Deputy CM and state Congress president. But behind the scenes, most people believed there was an informal understanding: after 2.5 years, Shivakumar would take over as CM. The deal was never officially confirmed — nor denied. That ambiguity helped keep the peace… until now.

Conflicting Support Bases — Two Mandates, Two Political Styles

Siddaramaiah’s strength lies in social justice politics. As an OBC leader from a Kuruba background, he built the AHINDA coalition over decades. His focus on welfare policies — subsidies, benefits for women, backward class upliftment — helped Congress win huge support in many parts of the state in 2023.

On the other hand, Shivakumar represents strong grassroots organisation and caste-based mobilisation. His Vokkaliga base comes from Old Mysuru and nearby regions. In 2023, his ability to deliver votes and manage campaigns at the booth level helped Congress wrest seats from traditional rivals. That made him indispensable too.

So the problem now: Congress needs both social coalition strength and organisational muscle. Choosing one over the other risks alienating a major voter block.

Why the High Command is Under Pressure — and Why the Breakfast Meet Might Not Be Enough

After repeated pressure from supporters of Shivakumar, especially some MLAs who traveled to Delhi to press for change, the central leadership intervened. Reports say they told both leaders to sit together and sort things out.

That triggered the breakfast diplomacy. The hope was that face-to-face conversation could help ease tensions and buy time while Delhi weighs options.

But many believe this truce is only surface-level. The deeper questions remain:

• Should Siddaramaiah complete a full five-year term or step aside midway?
• If Shivakumar becomes CM now or later — will that alienate AHINDA supporters?
• Could repeated internal friction damage governance and public trust?

The high command’s decision could determine not just who sits on the chair — but whether Congress retains its hard-won coalition strength until the next election.

What’s at Stake: More Than Just a Name on the Chair

At root, this conflict exposes a deeper dilemma for Congress: when a party’s power rests on two very different social bases and leadership styles, choosing just one leader risks undermining the other base. In Karnataka’s case, the party gained success in 2023 by combining the social reach of AHINDA with the organisational drive of Shivakumar’s camp.

If the central leadership mismanages the transition, the damage could go beyond short-term instability. A fractured coalition could reduce Congress’s appeal in the 2028 election — or worse, lead to defections or loss of support in key regions.

What Happens Next — Three Possible Scenarios

Analysts expect one of three likely paths, each with risks:

• Siddaramaiah continues for full term: Might keep AHINDA stable but risk Vokkaliga and organisational supporters drifting away.
• Shivakumar becomes CM now: Could energise organisation, but risk upsetting social coalition and welfare base.
• High-command announces a future-dated transition: Offers temporary balance — but may prolong behind-the-scenes jockeying, uncertainty, and internal tension.

Final Word: “Breakfast diplomacy” may have paused the fever — but it hasn’t cured the disease

The breakfast meet was a stage-managed effort to show unity. It created a narrative of calm and control. But the underlying tensions, conflicting ambitions, and social-political realities inside Karnataka’s Congress remain untouched.

The real test now falls on the central leadership. They need to strike a delicate balance — or risk losing what made Karnataka a flagship state for them.