The economy of India is believed to grow by 7.3 percent during the July-September quarter, as per a Reuters survey of economists. This growth was supported by increased expenditure on rural areas and ongoing government investment, despite the private capital expenditure was in a weak state.

Consumption by households, which make around 60% of the nation’s GDP, increased due to a rise in demand for rural goods due to a rise in agricultural output. However urban and private consumption was less affluent, highlighting the different growth rates across different sectors.

The government spending continued to play an important role in sustaining the economy throughout the period.

Despite global turmoil as well as US president Donald Trump’s choice to increase the tariffs for Indian goods to 50% in the month of August India is still one of the largest economies that is growing at the fastest rate. The move to increase tariffs coincided with investors from abroad withdrawing more than $16 billion out of Indian stocks this year.

Economists suggested that a low inflation-adjusted indice could have increased real GDP numbers and made growth appear more robust than its actual momentum.

The Reuters survey, conducted between November 18 and 24 with responses from 61 economists, suggests GDP growth eased slightly from the previous quarter’s better-than-expected 7.8 percent. Forecasts ranged between 6.0 and 8.5 percent.

Kaushik Das, Chief Economist for India at Deutsche Bank, said private consumption and central government capital expenditure will continue to support growth for now, while private sector investment may remain cautious due to global uncertainty.

Official GDP figures will be released on Friday, November 28 at 10:30 GMT.

Looking ahead, economists expect growth to gradually soften, predicting 6.8 percent expansion in the current quarter and 6.3 percent in the quarter ending March 2026.

Statistical Boost

A low GDP deflator, driven by cooling inflation, was cited by several analysts as a major statistical factor influencing the latest growth estimates. Wholesale inflation remained near zero, while consumer inflation averaged around 2 percent during the quarter and has since dropped below 0.5 percent.

“This deflator trend is likely to continue through the rest of the fiscal year,” said Rajni Thakur, Chief Economist at L&T Finance.

Economic activity measured through Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to have grown at 7.15 percent. Nominal GDP growth, which does not adjust for inflation, likely slowed to 8.3 percent from 8.8 percent in the previous quarter.

Recent cuts to goods and services tax (GST) rates, effective September 22, may help demand recover in the coming months. However, economists caution that high household debt could limit the benefits of tax relief.

“GST cuts came at a time when many households are already burdened with debt, which reduces how much they can use or save from this relief,” said Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ.